Economy poised for a solid year in 2025. But these Trump plans could slow growth

The U.S. economy is expected to cool in 2025 but maintain solid growth as inflation continues to ease, supported by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and strong consumer spending driven by wage gains. However, uncertainty surrounds President-elect Donald Trump’s contrasting policy agendas, which include potentially growth-boosting tax cuts and deregulation but also inflationary risks from high tariffs and reduced immigration. 

Economists predict moderate implementation of Trump’s trade and immigration promises, with tariffs on Chinese imports likely around 20-30% and annual deportations of undocumented immigrants estimated at 500,000, significantly lowering net immigration. While these measures may temper economic growth and fuel inflation, a focus on pro-business policies could bolster expansion, making 2025 a transitional year of mixed outcomes.